Phil Pearlman's Blog

Here’s my interview with The CME Group’s Chief Economist, Blu Putnam. We talked energy mostly and focused on the oil and gas production boom in the US as one driver of the recovery that does not get the attention it deserves – a great insight.

He thinks that recent higher oil prices are likely a sign that the economy is improving and that at least part of the move is demand related.

Check it out:

RELATED: Blu examines the US Energy Revolution theme in great detail in his latest research.

$CL_F $NG_F

 

Took some minutes to chat w RGB President Jeff Grossman at the NYMEX this afternoon. This guy’s been trading ’em since before there was fossil fuels and he’s seen it all…

We talked the enduring Egypt risk premium in crude even as coup stories fade from the news cycle, the “anti-commodity” behavior of natural gas and this critical level in gasoline.

Check it:

$CL_F $NG_F $RB_F

 

I interviewed Grafite Capital’s Mihir Dange this afternoon at the NYMEX for The CME Group. Mihir trades gold options and we focused on how he is approaching the market right here right now as well as the bigger picture.

He’s a sharp guy… check it out:

$GC_F $SI_F $ZB_F

 

I’m hosting a stock market tournament on Invoost that begins this Wednesday morning, July 10th and runs until the close on July 19th. This should be awesome and anyone can sign up to compete for cash prizes.

Invoost is a new site that allows people to match their stock picking ability in contests over multiple time frames. You can read more about it on Howard’s blog. The upshot though, is that its incredibly easy to sign up and enter and a lot of fun to play.

Invoost is a StockTwits API partner so you can sign up for an account simply just by using your StockTwits account.

We will have also have some StockTwits Shwag prizes drawn at random for those who enter and beat my performance, if anyone can :), just to add some extra kicks to the mix.

Check out Dr. Phil’s Trading Challenge HERE.

Invoost is a StockTwits Sponsor

 

I did a quick Google Hangouts with JC this morning and we put the relative performance of the equity indices into a clear context.

Check it out:

$IWC $SPY $IWM $GLD $SLV

 

A couple of months ago, I wrote a quick piece about how when an asset breaks, then its broken.

I used $AAPL and $GLD as examples but the post really wasn’t about those two names in particular even though I got some hate from Apple bulls and gold bugs.

What I was really focusing on was a general principle regarding assets that break down and how they just don’t magically bounce back because those who are holding them hope they will.

This morning, $BBRY had a huge report after the launch of its new phones and it dissapointed in a big way.

This is a classic case of if it breaks than its broken so if you’re holding and hoping, well, you might get something, but more likely the stock will continue lower regardless of the short interest because it is broken.

Related: When An Asset Breaks, Then Its Broken

 

I first posted this chart in January & then again at the end of March. It shows the 2 corrections of 2012, one of 10% & one of 8% even as the $SPX and all broad markets were up more than 10% for the year. Both lasted 2 months which is notable and the current correction has lasted 1 month & 3 days so far….

People freak out during corrections while cockeyed risk taking gets washed out. Something to keep in mind here as the end of the world drums beat louder and louder…

Related:

2nd Quarter Outlook: Waiting for Godot

$SPY

 

So here’s the deal. Over the coming weeks and months I want to learn a lot about solar energy for potntial long term investments. This is not a trade and I have no positions yet but over the course of time I want to be able to develop my own theses and strategies so that I can put capital to work.

One way I can do this is by talking to the smartest people I know on the subject. The beauty is that through the magic of G+ Hangouts, I can then share the conversation with others who are interested.

Two days ago, I spoke with Chris Nelder and you can find that video here.

This morning I had the opportunity to chat with Gregor Macdonald who has been studying energy forever and who thinks through things independently.

He writes at Terra Joule and if you are serious about investing in alt energy, I highly recommend his research which I subscribe to.

We cover a ton here from the grid, R&D to Tesla and Gregor is thinking about 2020 which I love.

Check it:

$TSLA $SI

 

I read a great piece this morning by my old friend and energy analyst Chris Nelder on the economics of alternative energy which compared nuclear unfavorably to solar.

Its a must read piece if you are focusing investments on energy in general and alternative energy specifically.

Chris is a treasure trove of information and he calls bullshit pointedly and with a razor sharp intellect.

This afternoon, I rang Chris on the Google Hangouts and we discussed the article and fundamental issues around alt energy in great detail.

Related:

Chris is a must follow on Twitter if you are focused on alt energy.

The Real Reason To Fight Nuclear Power Has Nothing To Do With Health Risks by Chris Nelder

Nuclear’s Swan Songs by Chris Nelder

 

 

 

 

 

Its an honor sitting down with Chris Kimble of Kimble Charting Solutions.

We walk through his thinking here on The Nikkei, home construction, high yield debt and margin debt.

This is a serious weekend watch. Enjoy…

$EWJ $TLT $XHB $SPY