Poll: How Will Stocks Perform in 2011?
Wednesday, December 29, 2010How do you think stocks will perform in 2011?
How do you think stocks will perform in 2011? Just curious:
comScore Media Metrix for November 2010: Groupon on the Rise
Thursday, December 23, 2010The comScore Media Metrix report for November is out with the rank of the top 50 web properties. The report includes important information related to web traffic and the holiday season. Here’s some highlights with the full report embedded below
1. Coupon sites are the top growing category. Tempering doubt regarding the wisdom of the recent cold shoulder Groupon gave $GOOG or big private investments in the space, traffic growth of online coupon sites into the holiday season is on fire.
The comScore Media Metrix report for November is out with the rank of the top 50 web properties. The report includes important information related to web traffic and the holiday season. Here’s some highlights with the full report embedded below
1. Coupon sites are the top growing category. Tempering doubt regarding the wisdom of the recent cold shoulder Groupon gave $GOOG or big private investments in the space, traffic growth of online coupon sites into the holiday season is on fire.
The numbers here and commentary remind me to some extent of the first few holiday shopping seasons after the launch of the first internet retailers such as $AMZN. Analysts are just beginning to wrap their hands around the implications of the annual cyclical patterns here.
2. Speaking of traditional internet based retail, growth remains robust relative to retail in general a full 15 years after Bezos launched $AMZN which remains by far the largest shopping destination, while $BBY actually had the highest growth rate albeit small consolation to their recent punk earnings report.
3. $YHOO ranked as the number 1 site overall. They and $GOOG have been running neck and neck for months with $MSFT sites not far behind.
ComScore Media Metrix Ranks Top 50 U.S. Web Properties for November 2010
2011 Interview with Howard Lindzon in Chicago
Wednesday, December 22, 2010Last week, Howard Lindzon interviewed me in Chicago before the Allan Schoenberg Roast. We chatted about a host of topics from social media to the prospects of $AOL to the grains markets to what’s ahead in 2011.
Last week, Howard Lindzon interviewed me in Chicago before the Allan Schoenberg Roast. We chatted about a host of topics from social media to the prospects of $AOL to the grains markets to what’s ahead in 2011.
You can watch here:
Andrew Mason, Diminishing Marginal Utility and Kicking Ass
Saturday, December 4, 2010There’s a ton of criticism tonight towards Andrew Mason and Groupon for turning down Google’s $5 billion plus bid.
Well, the naysayers are wrong and its not because they simply can’t fathom turning down that kind of money from $GOOG or because they are the consensus.
Two factors are at play that combined fully explain not only why Mason would turn the bid down but also why the decision is so right and inspiring.
First, the first million you make has greater value than the second and much more than the tenth or twentieth. This is an example of diminishing marginal utility. In April, Mason and early investors took 135m and so they have already cashed out enough to, as Mason put it, solve the money problem. They already have a ton of money, so there is less value in the next ton or the ton after that.
Second, they’re not motivated by the exit here. Mason and company are going for the grand slam. They have started a business with an early trajectory that equals only a small handful of start ups ever and so they are playing it out. This is the best mindset possible for entrepenuers – one that fully believes in the impossible and is dead set on realizing it.
Take it from Michael Lazarow who is a skilled and awesome entrepenuer in his own right and who gets what’s going on here. He tweeted earlier this evening:
Love it!
Review: Sentiment Analysis on Stocks, Treasuries, USD, Energy from Asbury Research
Wednesday, December 1, 2010This morning The CME Group posted an in depth sentiment analysis across asset classes from their education partner Asbury Research.
I just gave it a good read and find that much can be gleaned from their process especially. Specifically, what data are experts in parsing sentiment looking at and how are they integrating that data in order to form a view.
For example, with regard to equities Asbury focuses on four cohorts including RIA’s, individuals, options traders and market letter writers. Specific measures include the NAAIM Survey, the AAII Sentiment Survey, the OCC Small Trader Buy-to-Open Put/Call Ratio and the Investors Intelligence data.
This morning The CME Group posted an in depth sentiment analysis across asset classes from their education partner Asbury Research.
I just gave it a good read and find that much can be gleaned from their process especially. Specifically, what data are experts in parsing sentiment looking at and how are they integrating that data in order to formulate a view.
For example, with regard to equities Asbury focuses on four cohorts including RIA’s, individuals, options traders and market letter writers. Specific measures include the NAAIM Survey, the AAII Sentiment Survey, the OCC Small Trader Buy-to-Open Put/Call Ratio and the Investors Intelligence data.
This is very rich stuff for investors and traders doing comparative due dilligence within and across markets.
The report came out earlier in the month and they caught the correction well. You can find the report online here or read below.
Asbury Research Sentiment Survey 2010-11-11
Disclousre: The CME Group is a StockTwits Sponsor
Sentiment Volatility is NOT a Joke in Your Town
Tuesday, November 30, 2010For months I have been discussing on Market Shrinkology and messaging on StockTwits about the high level of sentiment volaitility and how it is a critical compnent of the landscape across equity, options and commodities markets. It is the reason why Steven Place’s blog post this morning on the coming vol break on $BIDU is so timely.
What I Mean by sentiment volaitility is this. The market as a whole is reacting knee jerk style to every bit of news and every gap down open (we’ve had 4 or 5 in the last couple weeks). Participants are riding the tilt a whirl and moving from very bullish to very bearish and back over short periods of time.
For months I have been discussing on Market Shrinkology and messaging on StockTwits about the high level of sentiment volaitility and how it is a critical compnent of the landscape across equity, options and commodities markets. It is the reason why Steven Place’s blog post this morning on the coming vol break on $BIDU is so timely.
What I Mean by sentiment volaitility is this. The market as a whole is reacting knee jerk style to every bit of news and every gap down open (we’ve had 4 or 5 in the last couple weeks). Participants are riding the tilt a whirl and moving from very bullish to very bearish and back over short periods of time.
We see this in the AAII Sentiment numbers where the difference between bulls and bears is making double digit moves on a weekly basis.
As I mentioned above, the way to play this, is to buy vol at opportune moments – during the periods of calm between mood swings – as I also pointed out in my post last month on the $XLF before it ran to 15.70.
All this reactivity and we haven’t even had a proper 5% correction on the $SPX since the Nov 5 high close of 1225.
For the record, I dont think the market tops when reactivity is this high on this shallow of a correction and base line state is jittery.
As well, I am usually a vol seller kind of guy but see opportunities as a swing vol buyer as it were.
The Art of War and Trading
Sunday, November 28, 2010Sun Tzu wrote The Art of War more than 2500 years ago and it remains a basic text for those studying military history and strategy.
Its also a great read for traders because it captures the required mindset of a warrior when the game is zero sum. Specific quotes may resonate with a trader and inspire. Here are some that struck me and the translation of the entire text embedded below (HT to The Kirk Report who linked to this pdf a few weeks back):
Sun Tzu wrote The Art of War more than 2500 years ago and it remains a basic text for those studying military history and strategy.
Its also a great read for traders because it captures the required mindset of a warrior when the game is zero sum. Specific quotes may resonate with a trader and inspire. Here are some that struck me and the translation of the entire text embedded below (HT to The Kirk Report who linked to this pdf a few weeks back):
… the general who wins the battle does many calculations in his temple ere the battle is fought…
It is only one who is thoroughly acquainted with the evils of war that can thoroughly understand the profitable ways of carrying it on…
He will win who knows when to fight and when not to fight
… the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself…
Let's Be Honest, Wal Mart Washed Our Brains
Thursday, November 25, 2010But Wal Mart wound up engineering the American public to frenzy lunatic fringe style leading up to and then on the day after Thanksgiving. Pulling us about by our opioid receptors until we found ourselves waking up at 1130pm (a half an hour before we went to sleep) to stand in line so that we could buy a tv or laptop or xbox and save a few bucks.
Wal Mart ($WMT) did not invent America’s gluttony. That saga goes back to the post World War II era, and if you want to get really macro about it, you might say that humans are predisposed, given the right circumstances, to over consumption.
And they didn’t set out to wash our brains. When $WMT began running the Black Friday 5AM Brain Buster Sale some years ago, their intentions were honorable enough in the capitalist sense. They were just trying to destroy smaller competitors proximate to their giant stores by crushing their spirits and bottom line on the most important sales day of the year.
But Wal Mart wound up conditioning the American public to frenzy lunatic fringe style leading up to and then on the day after Thanksgiving. Pulling us about by our opioid receptors until we found ourselves waking up at 1130pm (a half an hour before we went to sleep) to stand in line so that we could buy a tv or laptop or xbox and save a few bucks.
Theyve conditioned their big box competitors as well to adopt the same behavior and the media who devours the consumption lust drama like m&m’s.
Im not really criticizing $WMT, more turning the mirror on ourselves for reflection. They’re just running a business and trying to maximize investor returns.
What’s more, and despite such seductive operant contingencies, we are ultimately free to choose our own behaviors.
Let’s Be Honest, Wal Mart Washed Our Brains
But Wal Mart wound up engineering the American public to frenzy lunatic fringe style leading up to and then on the day after Thanksgiving. Pulling us about by our opioid receptors until we found ourselves waking up at 1130pm (a half an hour before we went to sleep) to stand in line so that we could buy a tv or laptop or xbox and save a few bucks.
Wal Mart ($WMT) did not invent America’s gluttony. That saga goes back to the post World War II era, and if you want to get really macro about it, you might say that humans are predisposed, given the right circumstances, to over consumption.
And they didn’t set out to wash our brains. When $WMT began running the Black Friday 5AM Brain Buster Sale some years ago, their intentions were honorable enough in the capitalist sense. They were just trying to destroy smaller competitors proximate to their giant stores by crushing their spirits and bottom line on the most important sales day of the year.
But Wal Mart wound up conditioning the American public to frenzy lunatic fringe style leading up to and then on the day after Thanksgiving. Pulling us about by our opioid receptors until we found ourselves waking up at 1130pm (a half an hour before we went to sleep) to stand in line so that we could buy a tv or laptop or xbox and save a few bucks.
Theyve conditioned their big box competitors as well to adopt the same behavior and the media who devours the consumption lust drama like m&m’s.
Im not really criticizing $WMT, more turning the mirror on ourselves for reflection. They’re just running a business and trying to maximize investor returns.
What’s more, and despite such seductive operant contingencies, we are ultimately free to choose our own behaviors.
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