Last night, I sat down with Gregor Macdonald and he explained the relatively large price difference between West Texas Intermediate and Brent crude.
He covered the economic, geographic and geopolitical forces at play here and the conversation is value added for those who are trading these markets ($CL_F) or examining the spreads.
Last night, I sat down with Gregor Macdonald and he explained the relatively large price difference between West Texas Intermediate and Brent crude.
He covered the economic, geographic and geopolitical forces at play here and the conversation is value added for those who are trading these markets ($CL_F) or examining the spreads.
At the end of January, after Hosni Mubarak turned off the internet in Egypt with a half a dozen phone calls, I wrote a blog post which proposed Hosni’s Law.
Hosni’s Law states that by the time an autocrat turns off the internet, it is too late for him.
At the end of January, after Hosni Mubarak turned off the internet in Egypt with a half a dozen phone calls, I wrote a blog post which proposed Hosni’s Law.
Hosni’s Law states that by the time an autocrat turns off the internet, it is too late for him.
I wrote this post, in part, in response to the worry expressed by Fred Wilson and across the blogosphere regarding the ease with which this internet shut down was achieved.
Mubarak stepping down today provides evidence to support Hosni’s Law.
Autocratic leaders across the Middle East who are currently under increasing pressure to at the least establish real reform now know that attempting a similar maneuver will prove ineffective and be perceived as a sign of weakness, not strength.
One less arrow in the quiver for these fuckers.
On this episode of Market Shrinkology, I discuss a strategy that can improve your trading.
Its a very straightforward approach which focuses on identifying areas of improvement and then working on those.
On this episode of Market Shrinkology, I discuss a strategy that can improve your trading.
Its a very straightforward approach which focuses on identifying areas of improvement and then working on those. You can watch below:
Last night, I did a Google ($GOOG) search for “What time is the Super Bowl kick off?”
The top response was from The Examiner and a news story entitled, What Time is the 2011 Super Bowl Kick Off: Super Bowl Sunday is Here. I quote the first paragraph of the article:
What time does the 2011 Super Bowl start on Sunday, February 6? That is the big question according to the Google trends, with NFL fans searching for superbowl kickoff time, super bowl time, Super Bowl XLV kick off time so know what time to tune in to FOX for the big game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Green Bay Packers.
Well, it looks a lot like Ms. Miller and the Examiner’s intent with this article was to survey popular Google searches and then to write an article that would get lots of hits while leveraging the Google juice the Examiner has already built.
Her reference to Google trends in the first paragraph quoted above is a nice touch.
But make no mistake, the content farms are a gargantuan search arbitrage.
There is huge inefficiency in search and content farms are expert and getting better at gaming this inefficiency.
What some might not realize though, as those who bid $DMD on its first day of trading attest, is that the mispricing of assets eventually get squeezed out of the market. The process often takes longer than insightful people might believe possible and sometimes the inefficiencies even increase to absurd levels before reverting but eventually they do indeed approach rational value.
There is an endless stream of new content being created, scraped and stolen that is tailoring itself to search results and this trend is accelerating.
Search inefficincy is becoming a crowded trade.
Eventually, Google will have no choice but to tweak its search algorithm or it will face competition from other search companies that are better dealing with the content assualt.
Recently, Blekko announced that it would not include eHow (a content farm owned by $DMD) in its results. Presently, this is meaningless to Google as no one knows about or cares much about Blekko. But there is symbolic meaning and at some point competitors to Google and Bing will gain ground as the content farms continue to add pollution to search results.
(My gut is that social search will be the one to force the changes to traditional search but that is a post for another day.)
The process will take a while. First off, Google has a gargantuan lead, does a lot of things brilliantly and still provides, for the most part, very high quality search results. Second, Google earns money from the farms and so has an economic incentive to resist change.
Nevertheless, the dominant search engines will slowly be forced to tweak their algorithms because the content assault will only continue to increase exponentially as ever more farmers claim their 40 acres and a mule and as existing ones continue to harvest page views.
I am guessing 18-24 months but things are changing very quickly in the online publishing space as the $AOL – Huffington Post deal attests. Perhaps the search arbitrage gets squeezed much more quickly.
Special thanks to my friend Greg Battle who provoked me and helped me sift and focus these thoughts.
This is one of my favorite YouTube videos of all time.
No Mas and artist James Blagden add video to an interview w Dock Ellis as he describes pitching a no hitter in 1970 while tripping on acid.
I had the pleasure of chatting with Jeff Carter last night on Market Shrinkology. He is all over the commodities trades which are going bizonkers presently.
I had the pleasure of chatting with Jeff Carter last night on Market Shrinkology. He is all over the commodities trades which are going bizonkers presently and we explored the recent moves in corn ($ZC_F), crude ($CL_F) and hogs ($HE_F) as well as Egypt ($EGPT).
I see this epsisode as an unintended but gargantum scientific experiment that had to come sooner or later.
We are testing Hosni’s Law which states that once an autocrat attempts to turn off the internet, it is too late for him.
If he falls, it will serve as caution to other autocrats. They will recognize that this is not an option.
Remember when we used to call it the World Wide Web?
I must admit that there is a part of me that loves the fact that Hosni Mubarak attempted to turn off the internet in Egypt.
Not because I want to see him succeed or disagree with Fred Wilson’s fear that a revolutionary technology which, in 20 years, has become essential to global communication, commerce and social interaction can be shut down with a half dozen phone calls in a nation of 83 million people.
Its just that I don’t think it can be. I don’t believe such a tactic can be used effectively politically as it reveals weakness and vulnerability more than power.
I see this epsisode as an unintended but gargantum scientific experiment that had to come sooner or later.
We are testing Hosni’s Law which states that once an autocrat attempts to turn off the internet, it is too late for him.
If he falls, it will serve as caution to other autocrats. They will recognize that this is not an option.
Remember when we used to call it the World Wide Web?
It was a hokey name and we were naive but it captured the spirit and the force of what was coming. With every new interconnection, the web grows more robust and there are many new interconnections occurring every moment.
I have no idea what leadership will replace Mubarak’s rule. Its complex and I am not an expert. But I do know that if he falls here, one small but important lesson of this unfolding drama will have affirmed the resiliency of the web.
At its best, shorting stocks on fundamentals over a longer period should be a lonely endeavor in which the particpant is derided. It should be betting the don’t pass line at a craps table even as the rest of the table bets the pass line.
Traditionally, short sellers are perceived as being a smart and cunning breed running against the herd but in some instances they ARE the herd.
$NFLX reported solid earnings last night including 63% subscriber growth yoy, the stock price is up huge and making all time highs on big volume and noted short seller of the stock Whitney Tilson must be twisting.
The interesting thing to me though and the lesson for traders concerns the legion of shorts and skeptics in general who were already aboard and who hopped aboard to ride Tilson’s call.
At its best, shorting stocks on fundamentals over a longer period should be a lonely endeavor in which the particpant is derided. It should be betting the don’t pass line at a craps table even as the rest of the table bets the pass line.
When its not there is a problem.
I asked seasoned short seller Seabreeze Partners Doug Kass to comment and he had this to say,
I learned a lesson a long time ago. Life is too short to be short companies like $NFLX where as recently as December 31 over 30% of the float was short. Squeezes happen routinely under these circumstances. Add to that how well the company is executing on its strategy as reflected in its subscriber growth and its a clearly dangerous situation.
I learned from Doug a long time ago that the popular shorts are not the best ones as this instance attests.
I was going to call this post “The Three Things You Need to Know About Why I Scratch My Expanding Ass” but I am more refined than that. 🙂
Nevertheless, there is a Headline Bubble inflating across the blogosphere and online news and commentary media in general.
More page views are required and so more content must be created or reblogged or scraped ever more quickly.
As a result, the length editors go in order to grab attention spirals higher.
Like all bubbles, this will continue longer than rational actors envision but make no mistake this balloon will go pop.
There will also come a time in the not too distant future when the perception of bloggers who have their content pulled directly onto aggregation sites will shift from,
“great, I am getting more exposure.”
to
“no, please do not take my content and my page view from me.”
This process has already begun.
We are catching, Eli Radke a special kid still in the somewhat early stages of his development as a trader. The beauty of this interview for me is his frankness and humility as well as a quiet intelligence that sneaks up on you and is so distinct from some guys who throw even their mediocre ideas in your face.
Thanks for taking the time @ERadke!
We are catching, Eli Radke a special kid still in the somewhat early stages of his development as a trader. The beauty of this interview for me is his frankness and humility as well as a quiet intelligence that sneaks up on you and is so distinct from some guys who throw even their mediocre ideas in your face.
Thanks for taking the time @ERadke!