Expiring Monthly Is a Great Read for Serious Options Traders

Taking a moment to highlight the quality work of my friend Jared Woodard who the StockTwits community knows well as @condoroptions.

Jared has been posting smart and actionable options related ideas on his blog and to the StockTwits site since the beginning and so it is no wonder that his monthly publication, which he edits and writes along with Bill Luby, Mark Wolfinger and Mark Sebastion, would be well worth the time.

Jared passed along to me a free July issue and agreed to allow me to publish here and so I am passing it along.  I have reviewed and highly recommend.

If you would like to subscribe, you can go HERE.

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Drudge Is The Master

I love Joe.  He works harder than anyone I know, never takes himself too seriously and is flirting with genius at what he does.

Still, Drudge is the master.  Plain and simple…

Quick Poll Part II: Is the Next Five Percent Move in the SP500 Higher or Lower?

A couple weeks back, on the day after the $SPX lost 31 points to close at a 6 week low, I posted a quick poll to get an informal read on market sentiment.  My observation was that, despite the previous day’s shellacking, there was little fear in the market.

The results:  Almost 2/3 of the responses came back bullish for the next 5% move.

Since then, we’ve had an almost 5% move to the downside and I am again curious.

Is the next 5% move in the $SPX higher or lower?

Examining the Open Cloud w GigaOM Pro

If you are obsessed with the cloud as an investing theme into 2012 then you will want to join the kids at GigaOM Pro for their free webinar tomorrow, June 15 at 1PM ET.

If you are obsessed with the cloud as an investing theme into 2012 then you will want to join the kids at GigaOM Pro for their free webinar tomorrow, June 15 at 1PM ET.

While the world is chock with noise, these guys are ridiculously smart and hone in on signal.  As part of an all star cast, Jonathan Bryce will be a part of the panel.  As some of you may know, Jonathan is a co-founder of Rackspace ($RAX) Cloud.

Register here.

I will be listening in and it should be well worth it.

Quick Video with Options Maven Steven Place on the Strange VIX Behavior

On Tuesday, Steven Place wrote a must read piece on the change in character in the $VIX during this market sell off which began in early May.

Given the continued decline in equities ($SPY) teamed with the inability of the $VIX to spike or break out, I hit Steven on Skype for an update and some clarity.

You can catch Steven on the StockTwits stream @StevenPlace and also watch his excellent StockTwits Brunch program at 11AM ET Saturday mornings on StockTWits.TV.

Market Shrinkology: Technical Analysis and The Rorschach Inkblot Test

Last night on Market Shrinkology I discussed the the Rorschach Inkblot Test which is a projective assessment tool used by clinical psychologists to assess cognitive functioning, reality testing and personality.

There is much that can be gleaned from the test for technical traders as there many similarities between chart reading and the inkblot test. Foremost, both demand the interpretation of ambiguous stimuli which can then be assessed.

This was a fun one to produce and I think you will enjoy:

The Financials Always Mattered

The banks never really served a leadership role during the 2 year bull market but they always mattered.

In late April into May, few pointed to the divergence between the broader market ($SPX) and the financials ($XLF).

Nevertheless, the split which began on April 14th was a crucial tell and so I continue to watch the sector closely.

IPO Fun Facts from Renaissance Capital: Not Even Close to Bubble Levels

Renaissance Capital provides a ton of great information relating to the IPO market in the US and globally.

As Linkedin begins trading today, its a perfect time to take a look and see if there is anything we might glean as the IPO market is often associated with the health of markets in general and more specifically the demand for equities.

First, IPO’s have increased thus far this year over last year by 23% and, with Linkedin’s ($LNKD) offering today, will surpass all of 2009.  The chart below provides perspective here not only of these past few years but also of the euphoria of the NASDAQ bubble as well as the dearth in 2008 and 2009 during the meat of the credit crisis.

Next, IPO pricings compared to range which provide, perhaps, the most direct glimpse at demand for shares in aggregate.  Again, there’s a nice rebound from last year and a full recovery above the mean in the wake of 2008 which registered only 7% pricing above the range.

There’s an insidious theme bubbling up, especially on a day like today when the first large social media IPO is set, comparing the present period to that of the late 90’s into 2000.  Observers were hugely affected by those events and so they loom in the psyche and flash lucidly to the forefront of recollection when events even remotely similar present themselves.

The data provided here though provides some perspective. While righting itself from credit crisis levels, the IPO market is nowhere near NASDAQ bubble levels.

Thanks again to Renaissance who provides this data and much more in well presented charts and graphs.

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