Phil Pearlman's Blog

For years, I have been tracking sentiment volatility or reactivity.

I use the term reactivity because I am really just observing how extreme the emotional reaction is when the market corrects or changes trend.

If the market mood doesnt really change much when the market corrects, I call this low reactivity. When the mood changes quickly with an extreme swing that is exaggerated relative to the magnitude of the price correction, I call this high reactivity.

High reactivity indicates an underlying impairment in collective investor psychology. Instability. Neuroticism.

Think of the people you know and how they react to negative news. Some are even keel, while others overreact over small things. This second group is neurotic.

Reactivity remains high as I take note of how loud the bearish drumbeat has gotten on this 2% pull back from new YTD highs.

Europe matters again, QE infinity is a bust and we are heading back to 1257 and beyond…

This is just anecdotal based on my read of the media and the stream but I think it will be backed up by an AAII investor sentiment numbers tomorrow. Look for a big shift towards bearish that is skewed very negatively relative to the YTD and more recent performance of stocks.

 

I love $YHOO, the Mayer hire, am long the stock and believe they have a humongous opportunity right here right now to more efficiently monetize their properties, traffic and brand.

That said, I hope and am guessing that Marissa Mayer’s big blueprint presentation will include definitive comments around improving user experience.

These kinds of pop out ads (see image below) on the home page are endlessly annoying and, behaviorally, a punishment for navigating to the site.

This and everything like it must go.

 

Let be be finale of seem.

The only emperor is the emperor of ice cream

– Wallace Stevens

The “the Fed is panicking” meme is blossoming this AM off yesterday’s open ended QE announcement.

My sense is that those espousing and supporting the meme are, themselves, panicking and projecting such acute anxiety upon the threatening object.

Perhaps the Fed has learned something from the previous rounds of QE & Twist. My personal view is that they were not nearly aggressive or sustained enough to successfully defribrilate the economy.

Theyve either learned something from past errors or are acting politically. I think a little of both.

But I am no expert here.

What I do know is that every time I have expressed an optimistic view this year, I have been pounced by those who know much more about the macro than I do yet have been stubbornly avoiding the one and only objectively observable market reality that has ever existed – price behavior.

In December, I was bullish banks and got criticized and mocked.

In February, I suggested Greece didn’t matter and got flamed relentlessly.

Last week, I was quoted here saying:

Market particpants are deeply anxious and despondent after years of crisis, whipsaw and increased global macro complexity, but this is the stuff new bull markets are built upon.

…and people I respect called bullshit.

Smart people can criticize and rail against reality all day long everyday forever and do it nobly because leaders the world over HAVE made a giant mess of things. But such nobility is underperforming and you can see it in persistently punk hedge fund performance numbers.

Perhaps, the mess, after being hashed and rehashed, is in the market while price is sniffing out something more constructive.

Let the lamp affix its beam.

Indeed.

$JCP $KCG $TLT

 

For those railing, if you want to see the games live so badly, go to England and buy a ticket.

The only thing more boring than 20 medals would be 21.

If potato latkes and phelps were a couple, THAT would be interesting.

Thank god, the women’s gymnastics is over.

I am still disappointed NBA players take part in the games.

The Jamaican sprinters are by far the best thing about the Olympics. Nothing else is even close.

Jamaica, a poor country of 3 million, has the fastest humans in the universe.

Teddy Atlas is the second best thing about the games.

Sword fighting seems pointless and anticlimactic if there is zero chance blood spills.

As kids, we invented a ridiculous game inside the dog fence behind my house. Apparently, the Olympics have stolen this game and they call it handball.

 

Just got this list from a pal in the fray:

1973%    $GOV US Equity
1063%    $PL US Equity
747%    $MTZ US Equity
672%    $EXG US Equity
578%    $N US Equity
518%    $BG US Equity
420%    $HOG US Equity
407%    $TRN US Equity
401%    $PIR US Equity
388%    $PPO US Equity
316%    $KRO US Equity
314%    $DDD US Equity
305%    $DOLE US Equity
298%    $JWN US Equity
262%    $HLF US Equity
248%    $MCP US Equity
248%    $NOK US Equity
247%    $FRX US Equity
238%    $FSL US Equity
237%    $LH US Equity

The new Samsung commercials for the 2012 Summer Olympics  remind me of Apple Commercials of old with inspiring image and the music…

While the new Apple ones remind me of the “Dude, you’re getting a Dell” ads…

Jobs would not be happy at all with this and I wonder if there are larger implications or if this is just a cigar…

$AAPL $DELL

 

Is this chart bullish, bearish or neutral?

 

Does this chart look bullish, bearish or neutral to you?