Month: June 2013

A couple of months ago, I wrote a quick piece about how when an asset breaks, then its broken.

I used $AAPL and $GLD as examples but the post really wasn’t about those two names in particular even though I got some hate from Apple bulls and gold bugs.

What I was really focusing on was a general principle regarding assets that break down and how they just don’t magically bounce back because those who are holding them hope they will.

This morning, $BBRY had a huge report after the launch of its new phones and it dissapointed in a big way.

This is a classic case of if it breaks than its broken so if you’re holding and hoping, well, you might get something, but more likely the stock will continue lower regardless of the short interest because it is broken.

Related: When An Asset Breaks, Then Its Broken

 

I first posted this chart in January & then again at the end of March. It shows the 2 corrections of 2012, one of 10% & one of 8% even as the $SPX and all broad markets were up more than 10% for the year. Both lasted 2 months which is notable and the current correction has lasted 1 month & 3 days so far….

People freak out during corrections while cockeyed risk taking gets washed out. Something to keep in mind here as the end of the world drums beat louder and louder…

Related:

2nd Quarter Outlook: Waiting for Godot

$SPY

 

So here’s the deal. Over the coming weeks and months I want to learn a lot about solar energy for potntial long term investments. This is not a trade and I have no positions yet but over the course of time I want to be able to develop my own theses and strategies so that I can put capital to work.

One way I can do this is by talking to the smartest people I know on the subject. The beauty is that through the magic of G+ Hangouts, I can then share the conversation with others who are interested.

Two days ago, I spoke with Chris Nelder and you can find that video here.

This morning I had the opportunity to chat with Gregor Macdonald who has been studying energy forever and who thinks through things independently.

He writes at Terra Joule and if you are serious about investing in alt energy, I highly recommend his research which I subscribe to.

We cover a ton here from the grid, R&D to Tesla and Gregor is thinking about 2020 which I love.

Check it:

$TSLA $SI

 

I read a great piece this morning by my old friend and energy analyst Chris Nelder on the economics of alternative energy which compared nuclear unfavorably to solar.

Its a must read piece if you are focusing investments on energy in general and alternative energy specifically.

Chris is a treasure trove of information and he calls bullshit pointedly and with a razor sharp intellect.

This afternoon, I rang Chris on the Google Hangouts and we discussed the article and fundamental issues around alt energy in great detail.

Related:

Chris is a must follow on Twitter if you are focused on alt energy.

The Real Reason To Fight Nuclear Power Has Nothing To Do With Health Risks by Chris Nelder

Nuclear’s Swan Songs by Chris Nelder

 

 

 

 

 

Its an honor sitting down with Chris Kimble of Kimble Charting Solutions.

We walk through his thinking here on The Nikkei, home construction, high yield debt and margin debt.

This is a serious weekend watch. Enjoy…

$EWJ $TLT $XHB $SPY