Month: January 2013

More than 100 $AAPL charts have been posted to the StockTwits Charts Stream in the last day. I pulled four of the many excellent ones as they are key here to keep an eye on…

First, the Weekly via @stocktiger who notes the confluence of the major trend line and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level around 476. Great look and key key level.

Click Through on the charts for larger view.

 

Next, @Fibline charts the foreboding Head and Shoulders top pattern with the confirmed neckline break on this morning’s gap lower. The measured move looks like 300 (ht: @CVecchioFX).

 

 

 

Third, @OptnTradr with a nice visualization of the critical previous support level above 500 and how that has now become resistance.

 

 

Finally, this one from @HFTAlert which shows underlying pressure in the $AAPL. Its still under aggressive distribution.

 

 

Update: Adding a 5th here via @TradingPoints highlighting the 30% correction and monthly fib cluster. Joe is one of the best at this. period.

 

 

 

 

When you have a gargantuan speculative bubble, the majority of wildly overpriced assets never even come close to returning to their old high prices much less surpassing them.

400 years ago, at the height of tulipmania, a single bulb sold for the 34,584$ in Amsterdam and today, 400 years later, one sells for a quarter.

If you look at the great stocks of web dot one, you will notice that none of them have come even close to breaking the bubble highs set in 1999 or during the first half of 2000.

$ORCL would need to rise by 40% to make an all time high.

$MSFT would need to double.

$INTC would need to quadruple.

$YHOO would need to sextuple.

You get the drift…

Except, of course, for $AMZN which has not only surpassed its 2000 high around 113 but has more than doubled.

Indeed, Jeff Bezos won the internet.

Note: $EBAY, also an eCommerce play is the other of the original crew to at least be making a run for the money, now less than 15% from the ATH set a bit later at the end of 2004. It gets the Place. 

 

The above gif comes from the Vincos Blog and shows the dominant social network by country across the globe from June 2009 to December 2012.

Note the consolidation in the number of dominant sites over the 4 year period from 17 to 5.

Facebook has now established its leadership position in 127 out of 137 countries analyzed. As social media moves from infancy into adolescence  this pattern is important to note as it follows a similar trajectory to other industries throughout history. You can use search as an earlier example.  At first, a large numbers of smaller players vie for position and as time goes by, a smaller number of the most successful ones come to dominate.

My guess is that we are also observing a consolidation across more specialized, vertical, networks such as LinkedIn for professionals and Yelp for recommendations.

Good news for the leaders.

$FB $YELP $LNKD

 

Just spent some time with this excellent presentation by Ian Schafer and Deep Focus.

If you are focused on social marketing or the fundamental analysis of social platforms, this idea that “digital and social media has converged” should be no surprise.

So what are the implications and where does that lead? Take a closer look:

$FB $LNKD $YELP

 ht: Darren Herman

Here’s a quick note to young traders who are taking it seriously and attempting to carve out a profitable career.

First, most of you will not make it. So sad…

Second, most of you will not listen to what I am about to write. Whatever…

If you are one of the first or the second, well, you can stop reading now and move on or keep reading but just be aware that this is not going to help you so youre just wasting some minutes of your holiday.

If you are a part of a third group though, the minority, well then these words might just serve you well.

Successful market participation is a grueling process, a marathon. There are so many components and it is such a complex challenge that you must spend years improving while facing serious stress and financial setbacks. You will need to master multiple skills and it will take time.

For 2013, you will not need to or  be able to conquer it all.

Instead, choose one critical aspect of this craft to improve on and then make it your mission to crush that one thing.

For some of you, this will mean risk management but it may be something else like managing trades once you are in them or trade selection.

But whatever you choose, that one important thing, devour it, become it, crush it…

Focus on that one thing with religious fervor. Learn everything you can, seek guidance from those who have been successful, read about it everywhere, consume yourself in it, think about it when you should be doing other things and cultivate your own process.

Then practice practice practice that one thing you will improve in your trading until it becomes so automatic and so much a part of your routine that you do it every single solitary time as a function of habit.

Then read this post again next Jan 1, or in six months if you are a fast learner, and choose another critical skill to master.