The following is a verbatim gmail chat I had this afternoon with a guy who knows $GOOG well. I don’t trade the stock especially around earnings and publish this now only because I had not heard these insights previously. If there is anyone out there who has a smart and novel bullish take into the number, please reach out and I will try to add another post before the close.
xxxx: I personally am advising not holding google stock into earnings
me: why?
xxxx: Google plus will have lackluster numbers
on top of that
Ad sales will most likely be down
I cannot say how I know that but It is not through anyone at google
and not insider info
there will likely be a bleak outlook
and the wisper number is likely too high anyway
if they surprise by less than 6% there is a 50% chance of it going down 10%
historically
Suffice to say
this is purely an options play
It will almost certanly not stay in the area it is in
Eric schmidt joined google+
that is a horrible sign
unless they are hanging out the earnings call
It means they are getting management on to combat the “top googlers dont use google+” charge
they released this maps update before instead of after the conference call
they had to put off the nexus prime
that will get broached
I am just putting the odds at much better bad than good
me: how would u play it?
xxxx: 3rd quarter google updates are almost uniformly good though
I personally have a put position on
only a few hundred
but a put position nonetheless
with a lot more capital
I would position around a 520-580 spread
it is unlikely to land within 520-580
xxxx: I would also say that if google coughs
bidu will get nailed
I realize I didnt say bidu will get a cold
me: thanks
xxxx: but i couldnt find something 10x more serious than a cold
they will get the 1929 flu
there we go
me: can i blog this from an anojnymous source
xxxx: sure
me: going to post it verbatim.
if i hav the time
xxxx: include the caviat that long term google is still a tremendously good play no matter what happens, and I would use it as an oppourtunity to buy if it does go down