Month: February 2011

StockTwits Spotlight: Peter L Brandt

Saturday, February 26, 2011

Today, I would like to highlight a guy who, three weeks ago, barely knew what social media was. Peter L Brand still doesnt know the finer points of user generated conent and it will likely take him a while to catch onto the subtelties.

But who cares. This guy is a seasoned and wildly successful trader who, it turns out, has a bit of an edge to him while also being absurdly generous with his research. You can find his Chart.ly stream here.

For a while now, we have thought of StockTwits as an organic farm system which uncovers incredible market talent and provides a platform for them to be heard by others obsessed with markets and who crave great ideas and quality analysis.

There are a ton of gifted market participants who have never appeared in the usual unreliable media sources and they are getting their word out one message at a time.  This is my favorite part of the gig, connecting with experts in specific areas of finance and watching them grow relationships and a following. It is profound.

Today, I would like to highlight a guy who, three weeks ago, barely knew what social media was.  Peter L Brandt still doesn’t know the finer points of user generated content and it will likely take him a while to catch onto the subtleties.

But who cares.  This guy is a seasoned and wildly successful trader who, it turns out, has a bit of an edge to him while also being absurdly generous with his research.  You can find his Chart.ly stream here.

This morning, Peter sent me his weekend report and informed me that he has been publishing these since 1980 and distributing them to a small group of friends, first via snail mail, then via fax and then via email.  He has recently published a book entitled Diary of a Professional Commodity Trader.  I’ve just finished it and it is a silly good read for all traders who crave a sense of time perspective, discipline and reality.

It is now my mission to get the word out!

Please welcome Peter to the community.  Embedded below is a copy of the Factor Status Report for February 28, 2011 that he sent to me in the email:

(Hattip to Kevin Commins who introduced me to Peter!)

Factor Status Report, Ferbruary 28, 2011

Market Shrinkology 02/15/11: Chatting with Gregor Macdonald

Wednesday, February 16, 2011

Last night, I sat down with Gregor Macdonald and he explained the relatively large price difference between West Texas Intermediate and Brent crude.

He covered the economic, geographic and geopolitical forces at play here and the conversation is value added for those who are trading these markets ($CL_F) or examining the spreads.

Last night, I sat down with Gregor Macdonald and he explained the relatively large price difference between West Texas Intermediate and Brent crude.

He covered the economic, geographic and geopolitical forces at play here and the conversation is value added for those who are trading these markets ($CL_F) or examining the spreads.

Hosni's Law in Effect!

Friday, February 11, 2011

At the end of January, after Hosni Mubarak turned off the internet in Egypt with a half a dozen phone calls, I wrote a blog post which proposed Hosni’s Law.

Hosni’s Law states that by the time an autocrat turns off the internet, it is too late for him.

At the end of January, after Hosni Mubarak turned off the internet in Egypt with a half a dozen phone calls, I wrote a blog post which proposed Hosni’s Law.

Hosni’s Law states that by the time an autocrat turns off the internet, it is too late for him.

I wrote this post, in part, in response to the worry expressed by Fred Wilson and across the blogosphere regarding the ease with which this internet shut down was achieved.

Mubarak stepping down today provides evidence to support Hosni’s Law.

Autocratic leaders across the Middle East who are currently under increasing pressure to at the least establish real reform now know that attempting a similar maneuver will prove ineffective and be perceived as a sign of weakness, not strength.

One less arrow in the quiver for these fuckers.

Market Shrinkology 02/08/11: The Trading Survey

Wednesday, February 9, 2011

On this episode of Market Shrinkology, I discuss a strategy that can improve your trading.

Its a very straightforward approach which focuses on identifying areas of improvement and then working on those.

On this episode of Market Shrinkology, I discuss a strategy that can improve your trading.

Its a very straightforward approach which focuses on identifying areas of improvement and then working on those.  You can watch below:

Content Farms and Search Arbitrage

Monday, February 7, 2011

Last night, I did a Google ($GOOG) search for “What time is the Super Bowl kick off?”

The top response was from The Examiner and a news story entitled, What Time is the 2011 Super Bowl Kick Off: Super Bowl Sunday is Here.  I quote the first paragraph of the article:

What time does the 2011 Super Bowl start on Sunday, February 6? That is the big question according to the Google trends, with NFL fans searching for superbowl kickoff time, super bowl time, Super Bowl XLV kick off time so know what time to tune in to FOX for the big game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Green Bay Packers.

Well, it looks a lot like Ms. Miller and the Examiner’s intent with this article was to survey popular Google searches and then to write an article that would get lots of hits while leveraging the Google juice the Examiner has already built.

Her reference to Google trends in the first paragraph quoted above is a nice touch.

But make no mistake, the content farms are a gargantuan search arbitrage.

There is huge inefficiency in search and content farms are expert and getting better at gaming this inefficiency.

What some might not realize though, as those who bid $DMD on its first day of trading attest, is that the mispricing of assets eventually get squeezed out of the market.  The process often takes longer than insightful people might believe possible and sometimes the inefficiencies even increase to absurd levels before reverting but eventually they do indeed approach rational value.

There is an endless stream of new content being created, scraped and stolen that is tailoring itself to search results and this trend is accelerating.

Search inefficincy is becoming a crowded trade.

Eventually, Google will have no choice but to tweak its search algorithm or it will face competition from other search companies that are better dealing with the content assualt.

Recently, Blekko announced that it would not include eHow (a content farm owned by $DMD) in its results.  Presently, this is meaningless to Google as no one knows about or cares much about Blekko. But there is symbolic meaning and at some point competitors to Google and Bing will gain ground as the content farms continue to add pollution to search results.

(My gut is that social search will be the one to force the changes to traditional search but that is a post for another day.)

The process will take a while. First off, Google has a gargantuan lead, does a lot of things brilliantly and still provides, for the most part, very high quality search results.  Second, Google earns money from the farms and so has an economic incentive to resist change.

Nevertheless, the dominant search engines will slowly be forced to tweak their algorithms because the content assault will only continue to increase exponentially as ever more farmers claim their 40 acres and a mule and as existing ones continue to harvest page views.

I am guessing 18-24 months but things are changing very quickly in the online publishing space as the $AOL – Huffington Post deal attests. Perhaps the search arbitrage gets squeezed much more quickly.

Special thanks to my friend Greg Battle who provoked me and helped me sift and focus these thoughts.

Dock Ellis Interview Set to Video: The LSD No No

Thursday, February 3, 2011

This is one of my favorite YouTube videos of all time.

No Mas and artist James Blagden add video to an interview w Dock Ellis as he describes pitching a no hitter in 1970 while tripping on acid.

Market Shrinkology 02/01/11: Interview w Jeff @pointsnfigures Carter Talking Hogs & Grains

Wednesday, February 2, 2011

I had the pleasure of chatting with Jeff Carter last night on Market Shrinkology. He is all over the commodities trades which are going bizonkers presently.

I had the pleasure of chatting with Jeff Carter last night on Market Shrinkology. He is all over the commodities trades which are going bizonkers presently and we explored the recent moves in corn ($ZC_F), crude ($CL_F) and hogs ($HE_F) as well as Egypt ($EGPT).

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