Traders trade against the expectations of others and, especially over shorter periods of time, future value matters less than what others are willing to bid.
I found this Michael Jordan 1984-85 Star rookie card listed on eBay for 2,299.99$. It is not mint but in great condition (Grade8). I am sure a version in mint condition is worth much more.
I am not a trading card expert and I have no idea how rare this card might be but it is in great condition, 28 yrs old and the rookie card of arguably the best basketball player ever. I offer it for some perspective…
A month ago today, Yair Rozmaryn bought Jeremy Lin’s signed rookie card for 1,000$. 2 weeks later, he sold it on eBay for 21,580$.
From what I understand, this is already a rare card being the 17th in a series of only 25, signed and in mint condition.
Perhaps Lin will become one of the greatest to ever play the game, lead the Knicks to numerous championships and this card will be sold by nuns some years from now for 250000$ or more.
But for now, this strikes me as a classic case of noise trader arbitrage in which Rozmaryn astutely paired his cost against the potential price amid the tide of an emerging public fervor.
Great trade.
(Hattip to David Shvartsman who shared this pic of the Mickey Mantle rookie card and discussed this topic with me last night.)
*Long Lin Puts